A Monte Carlo sampling procedure for rare events applied to power system reliability analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a semi-analytical Monte Carlo method for rare event sampling applied to power system reliability analyses, which combines traditional Monte Carlo-based methods with simplifications from analytical methods. The result is a procedure which assess the reliability of a system with the level of detail which a Monte Carlo method offers, combined with computation speed gains from analytical methods. A case study is included, comparing the performance of the proposed Semi-Analytical Monte Carlo method with a Sequential Monte Carlo method, and an analytical reliability evaluation technique using approximate equations. The case study verifies the method results, scalability and ability to incorporate uncertainty in outputs. The method presented has other potential applications, e.g., in the study of power system resilience.