Risk factors and navigation accidents: A historical analysis comparing accident-free and accident-prone vessels using indicators from AIS data and vessel databases

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an explorative analysis aiming to identify indicators and factors associated with navigation accidents (groundings and collisions). The analysis compares cargo vessels with at least one registered navigation accident (grounding or collision) within Norwegian waters with those that have none, in the period 2010–2019. The comparison is made using data based on automatic identification system (AIS) satellite data in combination with information from IHS Fairplay, to construct indicators that reflect different characteristics of the vessels. Hallmarks of vessels involved in navigation accidents have been identified using bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis. The multivariate model was a strong predictor of vessels' accident involvement with 44% of the variance explained. Indicators that predicted reported navigation accidents included: (1) vessel type, (2) higher age, (3) smaller size, (4) longer distance sailed, (5) higher average speed, (6) flying Norwegian flag, (7) gray or black Tokyo MoU rating, and 8) not on US Coast Guard target list. The results are discussed relative to their potential causes as well as limits and practical applications. The study shows the promising potential of utilizing AIS data combined with various data sets to obtain knowledge on risk factors and risk indicators.