A hybrid perspective on energy transition pathways: Is hydrogen the key for Norway?

Abstract

Hydrogen may play a significant part in sustainable energy transition. This paper discusses the sociotechnical interactions that are driving and hindering development of hydrogen value chains in Norway. The study is based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. A multi-level perspective (MLP) is deployed to discuss how exogenous trends and uncertainties interact with processes and strategies in the national energy system, and how this influences the transition potential associated with Norwegian hydrogen production. We explore different transition pathways towards a low-emission society in 2050 and find that Norwegian hydrogen production and its deployment for decarbonization of maritime and heavy-duty transport, decarbonisation of industry and flexibility services may play a crucial role. Currently, the development is at a branching point where national coordination is crucial to unlock the potential. The hybrid approach provides new knowledge on underlying system dynamics and contributes to the discourse on pathways in transition studies.