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Modelling uncertainty in gas and CO2 prices – consequences for electricity price

dc.contributor.authorMo, Birger
dc.contributor.authorHelseth, Arild
dc.contributor.authorRex, Stefan
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-21T11:57:14Z
dc.date.available2023-08-21T11:57:14Z
dc.date.created2023-07-06T10:29:52Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.identifier.citation2023 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEMen_US
dc.identifier.isbn979-8-3503-1258-4
dc.identifier.issn2165-4077
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/3085060
dc.description.abstractA hydro-thermal market model is applied to a description of the north-European electricity system. The paper describes how modelling uncertain gas and CO 2 prices affects uncertainty in calculated electricity prices. Gas and CO 2 price uncertainty are modelled using historic price variations. With this new uncertainty modelling, the resulting electricity price uncertainty increases significantly compared to the deterministic modelling of thermal marginal costs that is standard in these types of models. Changes in electricity price uncertainty are shown using visual and quantitative measures for some representative price areas in the modelled system. Price forecasts from hydro-thermal models are among others used for hydro investment analysis. An underestimation of the future price uncertainty leads to less investment in flexibility which is much needed in the future electricity system with large shares of new renewables.en_US
dc.description.abstractModelling uncertainty in gas and CO2 prices – consequences for electricity priceen_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherIEEEen_US
dc.relation.ispartof2023 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM
dc.relation.ispartofseriesInternational Conference on the European Energy Market;19
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleModelling uncertainty in gas and CO2 prices – consequences for electricity priceen_US
dc.title.alternativeModelling uncertainty in gas and CO2 prices – consequences for electricity priceen_US
dc.typeChapteren_US
dc.description.versionacceptedVersionen_US
dc.rights.holderThe Authors hold the copyright to the Author Accepted Manuscript. Distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161839
dc.identifier.cristin2161172
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 257588en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextpostprint
cristin.fulltextpostprint
cristin.qualitycode1


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Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal