Prototype for estimation and forecasting of the future demand and generation from households in selected European countries

Abstract

New smart grid technologies, such as solar panels and electric vehicles, are increasing in popularity, but there is uncertain how this will affect the load profile for households, and how the Distribution System Operators should incorporate these changes in their grid planning. In this paper, a prototype for estimation and forecasting of the electricity demand (active power) for households is presented. The tool uses hourly data for load, temperature and irradiation as input to create a 24-hour load profile based on season and day type, as seen from the connection point to the grid. It is possible to add a solar panel, charging of electric vehicles or demand response, to see how these smart grid technologies may alter the profile. The tool is, in addition to Norwegian data, further tested on data from Germany and the UK. The results show the calculated profiles for households with solar panels in Norway, Germany and the UK, in both winter and summer time. Further, it becomes obvious that charging of electric vehicles has a profound impact on the load profile of a household.

Prototype for estimation and forecasting of the future demand and generation from households in selected European countries