Scenario quantification for the power sector in Europe and Norway until 2050

Abstract

In order to quantify a set of scenarios for the European and Norwegian energy system, a set of two linked models is applied. These comprise a global assessment model and an expansion model for the European power system. This setup of linked model allows to apply global framework developments in more specific sector models on a regional basis. For the assessment of defined energy scenarios, global shared socioeconomic pathways are simulated in the global assessment models. Analysis results are then to provide a framework for cases, which are assessed in a power system expansion model, to achieve more detailed insight to the development European and Norwegian power system in the light of a necessary transition to a low emission society. Results show that global development pathways have a significant impact on the European energy sector. Furthermore, a faster technology development allows for a postponing of emission reduction but relies on the availability of negative emission technologies in the second half of our century.

Scenario quantification for the power sector in Europe and Norway until 2050